football stats sites reddit soccer betting

I still build models, but just for fun now. Looking at models this way showed me quickly that I actually didn’t have any real edge over the bookies and I stopped betting after some initially good returns (that were probably just down to luck). Scoring rules are far more reliable than just looking at betting returns and that is also how I optimise my models. To answer your question about the research before a game:įor me it is purely calculating my own odds and comparing their performance (measured with scoring rules) to the implied probabilities from the bookies. I wrote something about it some years ago when I tracked the records of a couple of “pro” tipsters if you care to read it: This „ha, yes!“ moment you’re describing is called the illusion of skill. In fact since I started placing BTTS bets in particular my returns have gone down. What is your process before placing a bet?Īlso, winning bets with low odds has less variance but the returns are terrible. The favourites often win, except when they don't. Whatever you find in your research remember that footballers are like racehorses. The starting CBs are both out injured and the team is shit away? They haven't won in years at the home teams ground? some or all of the below:īeyond that, there's fuck all you can do. You can research until the cows come home but I've found that actually leads to worse outcomes it seems.īasic amount of research should be mandatory, e.g. I've been betting for this entire season and I'm more and more convinced there's minimal to no skill in it.* Gambling problems? Get help Related Subreddits Spreadsheet for tracking tips by /u/LucasTheBeard.Spreadsheet for tracking tips by /u/Simaoms.Football Data - Historic Football Results.The thread is sorted by new to get the latest post on top. Picks posted and talked about relate to their local kick-off time and day. NO LINKS mean no links to Twitter, Telegram, Discord or any other place.įeel free to share your winning slips in the Live Thread. Post them in either the live or daily picks threads.Īny post must include the teams, prediction and odds. Games discussed in the Daily Picks Thread relate to their local kick-off time and day.ĭO NOT create posts for your bet slips/opinions on bets, they will be removed.

The Daily Picks Thread is a tool just to keep this subreddit structured. Please DO NOT put your own picks in the textline if you post the Daily Picks thread. If you need the Daily Picks Thread and you cannot find the day for posting the pick, feel free to start the thread.

Football stats sites reddit soccer betting